Nigeria on the Precipice of Hunger & Revolt

It's a year since the general elections that ushered in, for the first time, a unique Presidential election that has been schemed out for decades, by the conservative Islamist north, the region, expunged out of an Islamic Empire called Usman Danfodio Caliphate, which had conquered the lands from 1804, via active Jihad, and had imposed strict, puritanical Islam, with all it's appendages and tentacles.

The northern Elite, in their nostalgia, for this ancient system that granted everything for free, or, more precisely, by subjugation of smaller tribes, culture and treasures, hoped that with a Muslim President, and a Muslim Vice President, the country would resemble this system they grew up to hear good about, and always aspired to revive it. Sharia never really left, the conquering British, left it intact, and ruled only by proxy, via an indirect rule, sharing powere with the traditional system.

Now, the new President inherited a mess of an economy, a mess in security, a mess in national cohesion, a mess of political maturity, and a mess of corruption. In all, he sought to solve the problem head-on, being the former governor of the richest state, Lagos, on the Atlantic Ocean, he sought to replicate his achievements at the federal level, by reintroducing full capitalism, and doing away with subsidy, especially on electricity, and on fossil fuels. This has consequences.

The immediate shock of these policies, snapped as would, sanctions of the whole world on a weak country, but it is the poverty capital of the world that is bearing the full brunt of this all. Flanked by Francophone countries, northern Nigeria and it's neighbors to the north, east and west, felt the real world and the real prices of things, never before felt in all of modern history. Smuggled petrol into those countries from the north, ensured a business and a parallel economy for the countries and the north, having to live with minimal impact of changing times and economic situations even as recent as the Ukraine War.

Ten months on, the naira fell to its lowest in history, by over 200% to the dollar, and kept sliding, this made the minimum wage, pegged at $1 per 8 hour day of work, $30 a month, negotiated by the Unions, a decade ago, to actually becoming as low as $15 a month, and even at that, inflation ballooned, since Nigeria imports virtually everything, and exports close to nothing.

With close to zero middle class, and a collosal population of illiterates, as well as huge debt burden, both internal and external, the country seemed on a precipice, with nothing but wary, and abject citizens going hungry.

The whole of the country is hungry, and where there's food, no one could afford it, since no one has ever saved anything worth the rainy day. Savings shrunk, with the fall of the currency, and skyrocketing food and fuel costs, gave no one any respite.

A typical northern Nigerian home, has a father figure of the family, and 3-4 wives, with some 25 children, some of which are already off to other regions as almajiris, while the little girls are betrothed to prospecting husbands, with the highest illiteracy rate in the world, famine was inevitable, and banditry, by herdsmen, ISIS/I SWAP, Boko Haram, Ansaru, and crime, ever more daring, made the region least attractive for any investment, from around the country, and from around the world, mob actions against dissenting voices, religionwise, or sexuality wise, were soaring, emboldened by the governments, as populist, and appeasement tools to terrorists, only encouraged more terror, and more agitation for full implementation of the sharia, just as the Taliban achieved, which inspires and jiggs up sentiments with news of locked up women at home, these folks seek heaven, and not the present.

It has now been weeks, and the people have tired of crying children, and so, have resorted to selfhelp, by blocking any truck on the highway and looting the supplies, or ransacking warehouses suspected to be holding foods or agricultural products.

While the world is busy with Gaza, and Ukraine, Sudan, went bust, Cameroun is going bust, Congo is going bust, and the motherload of all crises, Nigeria, is going bust, it may be too late, by the time attention of the world leaders turn to Africa. 

Helping 1-2 million displaced civilians in any war situation is overwhelming, if Nigeria breaks down into anarchy, the world would never have foreseen any worse situation. With 220m population, and atleast 120m in dire need of immediate aid, food aid, there may not be enough time for logistics to salvage and reverse the situation. Rwanda death toll would be a small figure, compared to what may come, and it would be swift, all under 3 months!

There has been, for decades, agitations for the amalgamated regions to break away, since none of the tribes really love each other, they all face different directions in philosophy, in spirituality and in world outlook. While the northerners are Arab-wanna-bes, the Easterners are Jewish-wanna-bes, and the Westerners, Caucasian wanna-bes. And all the regions hope to one day, blgo back to how they were, before the British came, in 1850-1960. Some have already held online referendums they hope to submit, to the UN.

All it takes is a small anarchy such as what's looming in the horizon, and it will become a free for all. Clerics may want to rule the north, active Jihadists would wrestle that power away, and the christians suffering daily murders and pogroms by the larger tribes in the middle of the country, may be the most vulnerable, and no one would come to their aid, except if the world really cares, but it doesn't. Nigeria, has nothing to offer the world, as it currently is, beyond Artistic Music and beautiful girls, desperate to Japa. We are, on our own...

Nigel Hope, writes from Nigeria.